Unlocking the Circular Economy Potential in China's Hydrogen Industry: A Dynamic Stock Model Analysis

Area of Science:

• Materials Science
• Energy Policy
• Circular Economy

Background:

• China's hydrogen industry is transitioning from gray to green production.
• This shift presents significant material resource risks.
• Circular economy strategies are crucial for mitigating these risks.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate future metal demand in China's hydrogen sector.
• To analyze the impact of green hydrogen transition on metal requirements.
• To assess the role of circular economy in managing resource risks.

Main Methods:

• A dynamic stock model was employed.
• Cumulative metal demands (2023-2060) for 17 metals were calculated.
• Five scenarios were analyzed across the hydrogen industrial chain.

Main Results:

• Green hydrogen increases demand for lanthanum, lithium, platinum group metals (PGMs), and titanium.
• Demand for cobalt, copper, and magnesium decreases with green hydrogen.
• Circular economy could reduce primary resource demand by 20-77%.
• Potential PGM supply shortages necessitate international cooperation.

Conclusions:

• Integrating material circularity is vital for a low-carbon energy transition.
• Policy insights are provided for decision-makers to manage metal demands.
• Urgent international cooperation is needed for PGM supply security.