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Opportunities for decentralised solar power to improve reliability, reduce emissions and avoid stranded assets
Philip Sandwell1,2, Benedict Winchester1,2,3, Shivika Mittal2,4
1Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nature Communications
|August 28, 2025
Summary
National grid-connected solar mini-grids enhance electricity reliability and reduce costs in lower-income countries. However, demand reduction poses economic risks, necessitating supportive policies for sustainable investment.
Area of Science:
- Energy Systems Engineering
- Renewable Energy Policy
- Sustainable Development
Background:
- Reliability of electricity access remains a challenge in lower-income countries, despite improvements.
- Local renewable energy infrastructure, like solar photovoltaic (PV) mini-grids, offers a solution for rural communities.
- National grid enhancements can create investment risks for renewable assets due to potential customer loss.
Purpose of the Study:
- To explore the interconnection of solar PV mini-grids with national grids.
- To assess the investment risks associated with reduced electricity demand for mini-grids.
- To evaluate the impact of grid-connected mini-grids on electricity costs, reliability, and carbon intensity.
Main Methods:
- Energy-system modelling was employed to simulate mini-grid and national grid interactions.
- The study analyzed the effects of varying electricity demand levels on economic viability.
- Quantification of investment risks and environmental benefits was performed.
Main Results:
- National grid-connected mini-grids can lower unit electricity costs and improve reliability.
- These systems contribute to reduced carbon intensity, aligning with Sustainable Development Goal 7.
- Moderate reductions in electricity demand significantly threaten the economic viability of mini-grids.
Conclusions:
- Interconnecting solar PV mini-grids with national grids presents a viable strategy for enhancing energy access and sustainability.
- Policy interventions are crucial to mitigate investment risks and encourage the adoption of grid-connected mini-grids.
- Balancing grid reliability improvements with the economic sustainability of local renewable energy investments is essential.
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