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Spatial patterns and determinants of inter-provincial migration across age groups in China
Hua Zhang1, Chunyun Chen1, Xin Li1
1Beijing Key Laboratory of Environmental Remote Sensing and Digital Cities, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Plos One
|August 29, 2025
Summary
China
Area of Science:
- Sociology
- Demography
- Human Geography
Background:
- Migration patterns vary significantly across different age groups.
- Understanding these differences is crucial for effective policy-making in China.
- Life stage influences migration intentions and spatial distribution.
Purpose of the Study:
- To reveal distinct inter-provincial migration patterns among various age groups in China.
- To identify the underlying driving factors influencing these age-specific migration trends.
- To inform targeted policy responses for migration management.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey.
- Employed an extended gravity model incorporating lasso-penalized Poisson regression.
- Analyzed spatial patterns and influencing factors of migration across age cohorts.
Main Results:
- Significant heterogeneity observed in migration patterns across age groups.
- Working-age population exhibits short-distance migration from central to developed provinces.
- Elderly individuals migrate towards Beijing and Shanghai, prioritizing environmental comfort over distance.
Conclusions:
- Migration in China is age-dependent, with distinct spatial and motivational characteristics.
- Economic factors are primary drivers for the working-age population.
- Elderly migration is influenced by environmental factors and less by distance, necessitating tailored policy approaches.
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