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Plausible global emissions scenario for 2 °C aligned with China's net-zero pathway
Junting Zhong1,2, Xiaoye Zhang3,4, Da Zhang2,5,6
1State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Meteorological Science and Technology (LaSW), Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China.
Nature Communications
|August 29, 2025
Summary
China's carbon neutrality goals will reshape global emissions, peaking CO₂ by 2062 and reaching net-zero by 2072. This pathway stabilizes warming near 2°C without extreme measures, aligning with Paris Agreement targets.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Earth System Science
Background:
- Anthropogenic CO₂ emissions drive global warming.
- China's transition to carbon neutrality significantly impacts global emissions.
- Understanding these impacts is crucial for climate projections and policy.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a reality-aligned scenario for China's net-zero pathway.
- To project global and regional climate impacts under this scenario.
- To assess the feasibility of stabilizing warming near 2°C.
Main Methods:
- Developed an interdisciplinary, multi-model framework.
- Integrated updated emissions inventory and China's net-zero pathway.
- Constructed a sector-specific combined scenario (SSP2-com) for greenhouse gases and air pollutants.
Main Results:
- Projected global CO₂ peaking by 2062 and net-zero by 2072, driven by Asia-Pacific.
- Climate emulators show global temperatures reaching 2.01°C by 2100, then dropping below 2°C.
- Findings suggest balanced decarbonization can stabilize warming near 2°C.
Conclusions:
- China's balanced, nationally-determined decarbonization is key to stabilizing global warming.
- The proposed SSP2-com framework offers plausible Earth system model inputs.
- This approach aligns with current commitments and enhances international cooperation.
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