A spatiotemporal analysis of liver cancer in the US (2010 - 2019)

Liver cancer remains an important issue of public health management in the United States, and the geographical differences in mortality indicators are noticeable. Understanding space-time models and basic risk factors is important for targeted public health mediation.

This study examined liver cancer mortality at the county level across the United States from 2010 to 2019. The disease surveillance software SatScan™ was employed to detect statistically significant purely spatial and temporal clusters of elevated liver cancer mortality counts and rates. The negative binomial regression model was used to assess the connection between the mortality of liver cancer, and various important risk factors such as mortality due to cirrhosis, the prevalence of hepatitis C, and other selected socioeconomic and demographic indicators.

This study shows 20 significant purely spatial clusters and 15 retrospective space-time clusters with high death risk, with the most extreme cluster located in Anderson County, Texas (Relative Risk = 4.04). High risk areas were concentrated in Northwestern United States, Texas, Arizona, New Mexico and the southeastern United States. The regression model pointed out mortality rate due to cirrhosis, excessive alcohol consumption, stomach cancer mortality and the prevalence of hepatitis C as the strongest predictors of liver cancer mortality based on Wald's chi-square statistic. A covariate adjusted spatial analysis revealed high-risk clusters in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida, implying the influence of additional unexplained factors.

This study emphasizes specific elevated risk areas that require further epidemiological studies by providing important information on the spatial and temporal distribution of deaths due to liver cancer in the United States. The results highlight the role of biological, behavioral and socioeconomic risk factors in the formation of mortality patterns. These results showcase future research on environmental, medical and lifestyles that support public health plans to promote liver cancer and reduce the mortality of vulnerable population groups.