Spatiotemporal stability patterns of ecosystem service bundles and their driving factors in Hunan Province, China

Integrated management of ecosystem services through ecosystem service bundles (ESBs) is increasingly recognized as one of the most promising approaches for optimizing ecosystem services. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESBs is critical for developing precise and adaptive regional ecosystem management strategies. However, most existing studies focus on the static identification of ESBs, with limited attention to the long-term stability and underlying drivers. With Hunan Province as an example and based on the spatiotemporal evolution of six key ecosystem services from 1995 to 2020, we introduced the "dominant service cluster change frequency" indicator to quantify the spatiotemporal stability of ESBs, and established an explanatory framework for the stability dri-ving mechanism. The results showed that food production, carbon sequestration, and soil retention significantly increased, habitat quality remained relatively stable, while flood regulation and water yield declined. The spatial patterns of multiple service types also underwent significant change during 1995-2020. ESBs showed high spatial heterogeneity and temporal dynamics, with 58.2% of the area showing high transition frequency and only 41.8% remaining relatively stable. High stability regions were mainly located in plains and mountainous forest areas with high levels of agricultural intensification. Geographic detector analysis revealed that land-use factors (e.g., cropland and forest ratios) and climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature) were the primary drivers of ESB stability. The interaction effects between land use and climate were stronger than single-factor effects. Based on the stability classifications, we further proposed adaptive and region-specific ecosystem management strategies to provide a new path for improving the ability to sustain service supply and the timeliness of policy implementation. This study would expand the perspective of dynamic regulation in the study of ESBs, providing theoretical support and practical basis for the refined management of ecosystem multifunctionality in changing environments.