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Probability errors in adults' and children's decision-making.

Dean A Marshall1, Elizabeth Meins2

  • 1School of Psychology, Liverpool John Moores University, Liverpool, UK.

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|September 1, 2025
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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Adults exhibit conjunction fallacies in objective and social judgments, influenced by winning likelihood. Children show these fallacies less consistently, with correlations emerging only in older age groups, suggesting developmental shifts in heuristic thinking.

Keywords:
Conjunction fallacyDecision-makingJudgementProbability errorsRepresentativeness

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Developmental Psychology
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • The conjunction fallacy, where P(A and B) > P(A), is often attributed to the representativeness heuristic.
  • Heuristic thinking is learned and context-dependent, necessitating a developmental approach to understand its origins.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the developmental trajectory of the conjunction fallacy in both objective probability and social judgment tasks.
  • To examine the relationship between conjunction fallacies in objective and social judgments across different age groups.
  • To assess the impact of a "thinking aloud" procedure on reducing fallacies.

Main Methods:

  • Three studies involving adults and children (ages 4-11) assessed objective probability judgments using chip/block distributions and social judgments based on individual descriptions.
  • Participants determined winners of single-player vs. two-player scenarios and evaluated social characteristics.
  • Study 3 employed a "thinking aloud" protocol to encourage rational decision-making.

Main Results:

  • Adults' conjunction fallacies were influenced by winning probabilities and correlated between objective and social judgments.
  • Children's objective probability fallacies were not age-dependent or influenced by probability manipulation.
  • Conjunction fallacies correlated between objective and social tasks for 10-11 year olds, but not younger children.
  • The "thinking aloud" procedure reduced social judgment fallacies in adults but not objective judgment fallacies.

Conclusions:

  • Adults' conjunction fallacies in objective and social domains are linked and influenced by situational factors.
  • Developmental differences exist in the manifestation and correlation of conjunction fallacies.
  • Cognitive processes underlying objective and social judgment errors may be partially distinct and develop over time.