Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Climate Change Science
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Global ecosystem projections are crucial for adaptation planning but face data resolution limitations.
• Coastal ecosystems like mangroves require reliable projections despite high parameter uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

• To project the probability of mangrove ecosystem persistence under climate change.
• To identify areas where mangrove future is highly probable versus uncertain.

Main Methods:

• Simulated network models to project net change in mangrove ecosystems.
• Utilized the SSP5-8.5 climate emissions scenario for projections between 2040-2060.

Main Results:

• Seaward net loss is the most probable outcome for 77% of mangrove units.
• 30% of units may experience landward gain or stability.
• Over 50% of projections were unreliable due to ambiguous outcomes.

Conclusions:

• Probabilistic projections reveal high uncertainty in mangrove persistence.
• Local data can resolve uncertainty and improve future persistence estimates.
• Conservation and restoration efforts can significantly increase mangrove gain and stability.