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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Sep 9, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

Published on: March 31, 2023

Projecting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Persistence Under Climate Change.

Christina A Buelow^1,2, Dominic A Andradi-Brown³, Thomas A Worthington⁴

¹Coastal and Marine Research Centre, Australian Rivers Institute, School of Environment and Science, Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia.

Global Change Biology

|September 2, 2025

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

Global mangrove forests face significant net loss, with 77% projected to decline. Conservation actions could nearly double areas of gain or stability, highlighting the need for data-driven adaptation planning.

Keywords:

climate change coastal conservation management mangroves modelling projections restoration

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Last Updated: Sep 9, 2025

Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions

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Published on: October 28, 2022

Single-throughput Complementary High-resolution Analytical Techniques for Characterizing Complex Natural Organic Matter Mixtures

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Published on: January 7, 2019

Area of Science:

Ecology
Climate Change Science
Conservation Biology

Background:

Global ecosystem projections are crucial for adaptation planning but face data resolution limitations.
Coastal ecosystems like mangroves require reliable projections despite high parameter uncertainty.

Purpose of the Study:

To project the probability of mangrove ecosystem persistence under climate change.
To identify areas where mangrove future is highly probable versus uncertain.

Main Methods:

Simulated network models to project net change in mangrove ecosystems.
Utilized the SSP5-8.5 climate emissions scenario for projections between 2040-2060.

Main Results:

Seaward net loss is the most probable outcome for 77% of mangrove units.
30% of units may experience landward gain or stability.
Over 50% of projections were unreliable due to ambiguous outcomes.

Conclusions:

Probabilistic projections reveal high uncertainty in mangrove persistence.
Local data can resolve uncertainty and improve future persistence estimates.
Conservation and restoration efforts can significantly increase mangrove gain and stability.