Global Plastic Industry Transition Addressing Key Drivers of the Triple Planetary Crisis

Area of Science:

• Sustainable industrial transitions
• Environmental science
• Chemical engineering

Background:

• The plastic industry's reliance on fossil fuels and linear models exacerbates the triple planetary crisis: climate change, biodiversity loss, and pollution.
• Previous transition assessments were isolated, climate-focused, and lacked regional specificity.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct an integrated global and regional assessment of plastic industry transition strategies.
• To analyze co-benefits and trade-offs across climate, biodiversity, and pollution drivers.
• To evaluate the feasibility of achieving a net-zero plastic industry by 2050.

Main Methods:

• Development of an integrated model to assess global and regional transition strategies.
• Quantification of resource requirements, infrastructure changes, and emission reductions.
• Analysis of potential trade-offs, including land use, biodiversity, and health impacts.

Main Results:

• Net-zero plastic production (1 Gt/year by 2050) is technically feasible via lignocellulose residues, recycling, and carbon capture.
• Transition necessitates consuming all global lignocellulose residues, early fossil infrastructure retirement, and grid decarbonization.
• International coordination on production relocation and feedstock trade is essential for global net-zero.

Conclusions:

• Global climate benefits of the plastic transition are accompanied by trade-offs in biodiversity and health, particularly in vulnerable regions.
• Tailored regional solutions are required to manage these trade-offs.
• Reducing primary plastic production is advisable, provided unsustainable substitutes are avoided.