The utility of infectious disease modelling in informing decisions for outbreak response: A scoping review

Infectious disease modelling plays a critical role in guiding decisions during outbreaks. However, ongoing debates over the utility of these models highlight the need for a deeper understanding of their exact role in decision-making. In this scoping review we sought to fill this gap, focusing on challenges and facilitators of translating modelling insights into actionable policies. We searched the Ovid database to identify modelling studies that included an assessment of utility in informing policy and decision-making from January 2019 onwards. We further identified studies based on expert judgement. Results were analysed descriptively. The study was registered on the Open Science Framework platform. Out of 4007 screened and 12 additionally suggested studies, a total of 33 studies were selected for our review. None of the included articles provided objective assessments of utility but rather reflected subjectively on modelling efforts and highlighted individual key aspects for utility. 27 of the included articles considered the COVID-19 pandemic and 25 of the articles were from high-income countries. Most modelling efforts aimed to forecast outbreaks and evaluate mitigation strategies. Participatory stakeholder engagement and collaboration between academia, policy, and non-governmental organizations were identified as key facilitators of the modelling-for-decisions pathway. However, barriers such as data inconsistencies and quality, uncoordinated decision-making, limited funding and misinterpretation of uncertainties hindered effective use of modelling in decision-making. While our review identifies crucial facilitators and barriers for the modelling-for-decisions pathway, the lack of rigorous assessments of the utility of modelling for decisions highlights the need to systematically evaluate the impact of infectious disease modelling on decisions in future.