Spatial Modeling of Equine Herpesviruses 1 (EHVs-1) Risks in Kazakhstan Using 2017-2024 Surveillance Data.

Area of Science:

• Veterinary Virology
• Epidemiology
• Environmental Science

Background:

• Equine herpesvirus 1 (EHV-1) causes significant economic losses in horse breeding globally, leading to rhinopneumonia, abortion, and myeloencephalopathy.
• EHV-1 establishes persistent infections on farms and has been recorded in 34 outbreaks in Kazakhstan between 2017 and 2024.
• Identifying risk factors is crucial for managing EHV-1 spread and mitigating its impact on equine populations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify sociodemographic, environmental, and transportation-related risk factors associated with EHV-1 presence in Kazakhstan.
• To develop a risk map highlighting areas with higher EHV-1 emergence suitability.
• To inform enhanced veterinary surveillance and control strategies for EHV-1.

Main Methods:

• Utilized a forest-based classification and regression approach to analyze EHV-1 presence/absence at administrative regional levels.
• Incorporated a nationwide survey of horse-breeding farms to derive horse population density data.
• Examined factors including average wind speed, road density, number of horse farms, and livestock surveillance facilities.

Main Results:

• Average wind speed in January was the most significant predictor of EHV-1 presence.
• Road density, number of horse farms, and livestock surveillance facilities also correlated with EHV-1 occurrence.
• Horse population density was found to be a less significant variable in the predictive model.

Conclusions:

• Environmental factors like wind speed and infrastructure like road density are key drivers of EHV-1 distribution in Kazakhstan.
• Risk mapping indicates northern, central, and south-western regions, particularly those with steppe/grassland landscapes, are highly suitable for EHV-1 emergence.
• Findings support targeted surveillance and control measures focusing on identified risk factors and geographical areas.