Precolonial Centralization, Koranic Education and School Participation in Nigeria

Several studies have documented the persistence of economic development outcomes across space and over long periods. Other studies have argued that the reversal of fortune has also occurred over time and space. Since different areas of current Nigeria were once under the rule of states with different degrees of political centralization and later investment in Koranic, this study seeks to explore whether areas or districts under a more centralized political system are more likely to participate in large-scale school expansion programs, such as the 1976 Universal Primary Education (UPE) and 1999 Universal Basic Education (UBE). To check for evidence of the reversal of fortune, we determine whether the degree of state centralization on school participation is more or less in areas that have large investments in Koranic education. OLS results show that while an index of state centralization has a positive and significant impact on enrolment in UPE and UBE programs, the effect is negative and statistically significant for those with heavy investment in Koranic education (measured by district fraction of 1914-46 cohorts with Koranic education). The results are robust to adding an extensive range of explanatory variables and specification tests. While the structure of the economy at the onset of Islamic activities in Nigeria may have made investment in Koranic education worthwhile, the contemporary world does not require Koranic education to make either regional or national advancement possible. Thus, there is a clear case of mismatch between the demands of modern economic life and the skills possessed by a large section. Thus, well-designed policies are required to address this mismatch and accelerate inclusive economic development.