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  11. Understanding Stroke Mortality Trends In Spain: A Comprehensive Age-period-cohort And Joinpoint Analysis

Understanding stroke mortality trends in Spain: A comprehensive age-period-cohort and joinpoint analysis

L Cayuela1, E Zapata-Arriaza2, A de Albóniga-Chindurza2

  • 1Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Severo Ochoa, Leganés, Spain.

Neurologia
|September 3, 2025

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View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Spanish stroke mortality rates declined between 1982-2021 due to period and cohort effects. However, recent trends show a slowing decline, emphasizing the need for continued stroke prevention strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Gerontology

Background:

  • Stroke mortality trends in Spain from 1982 to 2021.
  • Analysis of age-period-cohort (A-P-C) effects on stroke mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To update and evaluate A-P-C effects on Spanish stroke mortality.
  • To identify trends and influencing factors in stroke mortality rates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized National Institute of Statistics data (1982-2021) for stroke mortality and population demographics.
  • Employed Joinpoint trend analysis software for rate estimation and trend analysis.
  • Applied a log-linear Poisson model with a likelihood penalty function to estimate A-P-C effects.

Main Results:

  • Age-standardized stroke mortality rates decreased for both sexes (-4.3% men, -4.6% women).
Keywords:
Accidente cerebrovascularAge-period-cohort analysisAnálisis de edad-período-cohorteAnálisis de regresión joinpoint

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  • The rate of decline has slowed in recent years, with stabilization in women aged 30-64 since 2012.
  • Birth cohorts show a downward trend in relative risk, though this decline has slowed for women born 1947-1962 and stabilized/slowed in the last decade for both sexes.

    • Conclusions:

    • Period and cohort effects significantly influenced the decline in Spanish stroke mortality.
    • Decreased mortality may not offset potential increases in incidence in younger cohorts, leading to slowed/stagnant declines.
    • Continued focus on stroke prevention is crucial given current trends.
    Epidemiology
    Epidemiología
    Joinpoint regression analysis
    Mortalidad
    Mortality
    Stroke
    Tendencias
    Trends