Human resources in long-term care for older adults in China: Challenges amid population aging

Against the backdrop of accelerating global population aging, China is undergoing significant demographic shifts. Its population aged 60 and above has reached 264 million, projected to account for 40% of the total population by the mid-21st century, becoming a "super-aging society" and triggering a surge in long-term care demand. On the demand side, the overall ADL disability rate among middle-aged and older adults is 23.8% (35.4% organic), rising to 30.5% among those aged 80 and above; 17.8% have IADL impairments, and 36.44% of households with older adults are empty-nest. Combined with population aging, rising disability rates, the growth of empty-nest families, and heavy disease burdens, care demand continues to grow annually. On the supply side, 13 million caregivers are needed for disabled/semi-disabled older adults, with only ~1 million practitioners; traditional models focusing solely on basic daily assistance fail to meet diverse needs like mental health support and rehabilitation. To this end, this study aims to synthesize evidence on the structural challenges faced by China's geriatric care workforce. By analyzing demographic data, care demand indicators, and geriatric care models, it identifies core issues and proposes evidence-based strategies, with the purpose of improving the quality of life of older adults and strengthening development of professional geriatric care talent.