Global methane footprints growth and drivers 1990-2023.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Climate Change Research
• Economic Analysis

Background:

• Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, second only to CO2 in driving climate change.
• Global efforts to reduce methane emissions are underway, yet understanding emission trends and drivers remains incomplete, especially from a consumption-based perspective.
• Consumption-based emissions account for all emissions throughout global supply chains.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate recent dynamics of methane emissions from both production and consumption viewpoints across 164 countries and 120 sectors.
• To analyze the decoupling of methane emissions from economic growth.
• To identify key drivers of methane emissions changes globally.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of production- and consumption-based methane emissions data for 164 countries (1990-2023).
• Investigation of methane emission trends across 120 sectors.
• Examination of the relationship between economic growth and methane emissions (decoupling analysis).
• Identification of emission drivers through interval analysis (1998-2023).

Main Results:

• Global methane emissions show no sign of slowing down.
• Only a few developed countries have achieved strong decoupling (reduced emissions while growing economy).
• Global trade contributes significantly to methane emissions, with a notable shift towards South-South trade.
• Reduced emission coefficients (due to efficiency and technology) are key to emission reduction, but increasing final demand and structural changes in demand (since 2008) are driving emissions up.

Conclusions:

• Current trends indicate continued growth in global methane emissions.
• Effective climate mitigation requires a comprehensive understanding of consumption-based emissions and trade dynamics.
• Policy interventions must address both production efficiencies and demand-side factors to curb methane emissions effectively.