Epidemiological trends and projections of esophageal cancer in BRICS-plus: Based on the GBD 2021 database

Esophageal cancer represents a substantial global health challenge. Given their diverse socio-economic profiles and large populations, the BRICS countries are pivotal in elucidating the burden of this disease. Nonetheless, limited research has systematically examined the trends of esophageal cancer within these nations.

This research utilized data from the GBD database, encompassing ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and 95% UI. The EAPC was employed to assess trends, while the BAPC model was used to project future trends. Four risk factors were examined, and health inequalities were evaluated using SII and CI.

In 2021, China reported the highest rates across all metrics among BRICS countries, whereas Egypt exhibited the lowest rates in most cases. Smoking was identified as the predominant factor contributing to esophageal cancer mortality and DALYs in the majority of countries. Ethiopia demonstrated the highest proportion of cases attributable to a diet low in vegetables, India to tobacco chewing, and Russia to alcohol consumption. Health inequalities between countries were observed to be gradually narrowing. Projections indicate that from 2021 to 2030, Egypt, Iran, and South Africa will experience declines across all rates. Brazil, Russia, India, and the UAE are expected to see reductions in ASIR, ASPR, and ASDR but increases in ASMR. Conversely, China's ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR are projected to rise, except for ASDR. In Saudi Arabia, ASPR and ASMR are anticipated to increase, while ASIR and ASDR will decrease. Ethiopia is expected to witness increases in most rates.

This study examined the burden of esophageal cancer in BRICS countries. Recognizing the disparities across multiple dimensions can aid these nations in formulating more effective public health strategies and optimizing resource allocation, both of which are essential for the prevention and control of the disease.