Development of a new TNM staging system for poorly differentiated thyroid carcinoma: a multicenter cohort study

Poorly differentiated thyroid cancer (PDTC) is a rare, heterogeneous carcinoma from follicular cells, characterized by poor differentiation, aggressive spread, and poor prognosis. Currently, there is no specific staging system for PDTC. This study aimed to develop a new TNM staging system tailored to PDTC for improved disease management.

A new TNM staging system was designed and internally validated using data from the US SEER database (2004-2016) on PDTC cases. External validation was performed using data from four major institutions in China. Prognostic factors influencing cancer-specific survival (CSS) were identified through Cox regression analyses. Patients were stratified into subgroups based on adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs), weighted by these prognostic factors. The new system classified patients into five stages with distinct 5-year CSS outcomes.

The study analyzed 1,201 PDTC cases from SEER and 85 cases from China. Among the 876 patients in the training cohort, the new TNM staging system showed superior discrimination compared to the 8th edition of the AJCC TNM system. The 5-year CSS rates for the new stages I, II, III, IVA, and IVB were 96.3%, 88.4%, 69.4%, 43.3%, and 22.3%, respectively. The new system outperformed the 8th edition in predicting CSS, as shown by time-dependent ROC curves, C-index, and calibration plots. Both internal and external validation confirmed its predictive abilities.

The current AJCC staging system inadequately predicts PDTC prognosis. The new TNM staging system developed in this study offers improved stratification and prognosis prediction, potentially guiding more effective clinical management for PDTC.