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Projected cancer burden attributable to population aging: Insight from a rapidly aging society
Minh-Thao Tu1, Hoejun Kwon1, Yoon-Jung Choi1,2,3
1Department of Public Health and AI, National Cancer Center Graduate School of Cancer Science and Policy, Goyang, Republic of Korea.
International Journal of Cancer
|September 4, 2025
Summary
Cancer burden in Korea will increase due to population aging, with lung cancer remaining high and shifts in stomach/liver cancer. Emerging challenges include colorectal, prostate, and breast cancers, requiring new control strategies.
Area of Science:
- Oncology
- Gerontology
- Public Health
Background:
- Population aging presents a growing challenge for cancer control globally and in Korea.
- Quantifying the specific cancer burden attributable to aging is crucial for effective public health planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To project and illustrate the future cancer burden attributable to population aging in Korea.
- To utilize age-period-cohort (APC) models and population attributable fraction (PAF) concepts for future cancer landscape projections.
Main Methods:
- Extracted incidence and mortality data for aging-sensitive cancers from population-based registries.
- Employed APC models to project cancer cases and deaths attributable to aging up to 2046.
- Calculated aging-attributable fractions (PAF) for incidence and mortality.
Main Results:
- Lung cancer is projected to remain the leading aging-related cancer burden.
- Stomach and liver cancer burdens will shift to older age groups, with increased PAF for incidence.
- Colorectal, prostate, and breast cancers show emerging burdens, particularly in older adults.
Conclusions:
- Future cancer control must address both persistent and emerging burdens in an aging population.
- Targeted cancer prevention for middle-aged adults and specialized care for frail older patients are essential.
- Proactive strategies are needed to mitigate forecasted cancer trends in super-aged societies.
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