Decline in glomerular filtration rate as an endpoint in heart failure clinical trials: challenges and solutions

Lesley A Inker1, Brendon L Neuen2, Wendy McCallum1

  • 1Division of Nephrology, Tufts Medical Center, 800 Washington Street, Box #391, Boston 02111, MA, USA.

European Heart Journal
|September 4, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Assessing chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in heart failure patients requires understanding glomerular filtration rate (GFR) changes. Early CKD progression endpoints are crucial for trials, but interpreting immediate GFR drops versus long-term benefits is key.

Area of Science:

  • Nephrology and Cardiology
  • Cardiovascular-Kidney-Metabolic Syndrome
  • Clinical Trial Endpoints

Background:

  • Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) share common pathophysiological mechanisms, forming the cardiovascular-kidney-metabolic syndrome.
  • CKD and heart failure (HF) frequently coexist, with overlapping therapeutic strategies.
  • Accurate assessment of CKD progression in HF patients is vital for individual management and clinical trial evaluation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explore methods for assessing CKD progression in HF patients, focusing on early surrogate endpoints.
  • To evaluate the utility of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) changes as endpoints in HF outcome trials.
  • To address challenges in interpreting GFR fluctuations in the context of HF treatments.

Main Methods:

  • Review of existing literature on CKD progression and HF outcome measures.
  • Analysis of surrogate endpoints for CKD progression, including GFR slope and threshold declines.
  • Discussion of challenges and potential solutions for using GFR as an endpoint in HF trials, supported by case studies.

Main Results:

  • Glomerular filtration rate (GFR) decline, measured by slope or percentage reduction, is an accepted surrogate endpoint for CKD progression in trials.
  • Immediate GFR reduction can occur with guideline-directed HF therapy, complicating long-term benefit assessment.
  • Careful interpretation of GFR changes is critical for evaluating HF trial endpoints and patient management.

Conclusions:

  • GFR changes offer valuable early endpoints for CKD progression in HF outcome trials.
  • Distinguishing transient GFR dips from sustained declines is essential for accurate assessment.
  • Standardized interpretation of GFR endpoints will advance both HF patient care and clinical trial design.

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