Effect of host movement on the prevalence of vector-borne diseases

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Biology
• Ecology

Background:

• Human movement is a critical factor in the global dissemination of vector-borne diseases.
• Existing spatial models primarily focus on disease dynamics, with less emphasis on migration's influence.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the impact of host migration on local and global disease prevalences using a multi-patch Ross-Macdonald model.
• To analyze how host dispersal affects disease dynamics in different spatial configurations.

Main Methods:

• Development and analysis of a multi-patch Ross-Macdonald model incorporating host migration.
• Derivation of formulas for global disease prevalence at zero and infinite dispersal rates.
• Classification of model parameter space for two-patch scenarios to assess dispersal effects.

Main Results:

• Local disease prevalence is bounded by the minimum and maximum prevalences of disconnected patches, exhibiting a weak order-preserving property.
• Formulas for global prevalence at extreme dispersal rates were derived, and comparisons were made.
• Numerical simulations revealed inconsistencies between disease persistence, host prevalence, and vector prevalence in response to host movement.

Conclusions:

• Host migration patterns critically influence the spatial distribution and overall burden of vector-borne diseases.
• Environmental heterogeneity in host and vector distribution can lead to complex epidemiological outcomes, affecting disease persistence and prevalence differently.
• The study highlights the importance of considering host movement in epidemiological models for effective disease control strategies.