USPSTF Recommendation Against PSA Screening vs. Stage and Cancer-Specific Mortality in Localized Prostate Cancer

The USPSTF recommendation against PSA screening (RAPS) in 2012 resulted in unfavorable changes in prostate cancer (PCa) outcomes. However, the effect on cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in localized PCa has not been assessed.

Within the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004-2021), we identified patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) or radical prostatectomy (RP) for localized PCa. Time trends were examined using least-squares linear regression. Multivariable Cox regression was used to study the association between RAPS and PCa-mortality.

Of 270,092 patients aged < 75 years, 191,621 (70.1%) were treated before and 78,471 (29.1%) in the RAPS era. CSM at 6 years of follow-up was 1.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.6, 1.7) before and 1.9% (95%CI: 1.8, 2.0) in the RAPS era (p < 0.001). In multivariable Cox models adjusted to patient characteristics, RAPS era independently predicted 1.2-fold higher CSM overall (95%CI: 1.1, 1.3; p < 0.001), 1.3-fold higher CSM in RP-patients (95%CI: 1.1, 1.4; p < 0.001), and 1.1-fold higher CSM in RT-patients (95%CI: 1.02, 1.2; p = 0.02) aged < 75 years. Of 33,688 patients aged ≥ 75 years, 12,485 (37.1%) were treated before and 21,203 (62.9%) in the RAPS era. CSM at 6 years of follow-up was 4.2% (95%CI: 3.8, 4.6) before and 4.8% (95%CI: 4.5, 5.1) in the RAPS era (p = 0.002). In multivariable Cox models adjusted to patient characteristics, RAPS era did not predict higher CSM overall, in RP-patients, or in RT-patients (all p ≥ 0.5) aged ≥ 75 years. Limitations include changes in early detection and disease management over time, which might have impacted CSM as well.

The USPSTF RAPS introduction resulted in a 1.2-fold higher CSM in localized PCa patients aged < 75 years, but not in patients aged ≥ 75 years. The time trend analysis suggested that this negative effect has become increasingly pronounced since the USPSTF RAPS.