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Do Open Fracture Classification Systems Predict Functional Outcomes in a Low-Income Country?: A Prospective Study of
Alexander Thomas Schade1,2, Vincent Mkochi3, Nohakhelha Nyamulani4
1Malawi-Liverpool-Wellcome Trust, Blantyre, Malawi.
JB & JS Open Access
|September 10, 2025
Summary
Open fracture classification systems show weak correlation with patient outcomes like function and infection in Malawi. Further research is needed to develop relevant classifications for low-income countries.
Area of Science:
- Orthopaedic surgery
- Trauma care
- Public health
Background:
- Open fractures are severe injuries with significant impact on patient quality of life and healthcare costs.
- Existing classification systems aim to predict prognosis and guide treatment for open fractures.
- Assessing the utility of these classifications in diverse settings like Malawi is crucial.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the agreement between established open fracture classification systems and patient-reported outcomes.
- To determine the correlation between fracture classifications and functional recovery, infection, and amputation rates.
- To assess the relevance of current classifications in a low-income country context.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study of adult patients with open tibia fractures in Malawi.
- Classification of fractures using Gustilo-Anderson, Orthopaedic Trauma Society (OTS), Muller, and Tscherne systems.
- Assessment of patient function (Short Musculoskeletal Assessment Score), infection, and amputation risk over one year.
Main Results:
- The Orthopaedic Trauma Society (OTS) classification showed the strongest correlation with function (0.34) and amputation (0.39) at one year.
- Correlations between most classification systems and patient outcomes were weak to negligible.
- The OTS and Gustilo-Anderson systems demonstrated moderate correlation with fracture-related infection (0.34 and 0.31, respectively).
Conclusions:
- Current open fracture classification systems have limited predictive value for patient outcomes in Malawi.
- Treatment factors and confounders likely play a significant role in outcomes, necessitating adaptable classification systems.
- Development of contextually relevant classifications is needed for low- and middle-income countries to improve open fracture management.

