Morphological Traces of Population Change in the Carpathian Basin (1st-13th Century CE)

This study explores cranial morphological variation and population continuity in the Carpathian Basin from the 1st to 13th centuries CE. It focuses on assessing biological differences and similarities across major archaeological periods, with particular emphasis on the Avar, Hungarian Conquest, and Árpádian Age populations.

A total of 1,597 adult crania (864 males, 733 females) were analyzed using six neurocranial measurements. Morphological distances between populations were calculated using Canberra distance. Canonical Variate Analysis (CVA), Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), and multivariate analysis of variance (MANOVA) were applied to evaluate intergroup differentiation.

The analyses revealed significant morphological variation between most archaeological groups. Avars-especially the Late Avar population-formed distinct morphological patterns, primarily along the first canonical axis influenced by cranial breadth and height. Males showed statistically significant differences between Early and Late Avar groups, whereas the corresponding comparison among females did not reach significance. The strongest separations occurred between Avars and the Gepidic, Sarmatian, and Transition groups, consistent with CVA and MDS findings.

The results suggest population continuity in some cases (e.g., Early-Late Avar, Conquest-Árpádian Age), but also highlight evidence of population restructuring, particularly among males. Recent genetic research supports these findings, indicating patrilineal descent and local kinship cohesion within Avar communities. This study underscores the value of the integration of cranial morphometrics with multivariate statistical approaches to reconstruct complex demographic histories in early medieval Central Europe.