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The implications of host-pathogen co-evolutionary outcomes on macro-epidemics based on a combined-host strategy

Qiutong Liu1, Yanni Xiao2, Stacey R Smith3

  • 1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, 710049, PR China.

Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|September 10, 2025
PubMed

Insights

Host-pathogen co-evolution can alter disease dynamics, potentially reducing the "hydra effect" seen with pathogen-only evolution. This research explores how these interactions impact infection patterns and prevalence.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modeling

Background:

  • Host defense and pathogen virulence are co-evolving traits.
  • Co-evolutionary outcomes significantly influence population dynamics and disease spread.
  • Understanding micro-level co-evolution is crucial for macro-level epidemic prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate host-pathogen interactions using a co-evolutionary model.
  • To explore the impact of host-pathogen co-evolution on epidemic dynamics.
  • To analyze the effects of combined host-defense strategies on disease spread.

Main Methods:

  • Development of a co-evolutionary model incorporating host defense and pathogen virulence.
  • Simulation of host-pathogen interactions under different evolutionary scenarios.
  • Analysis of infection cycling, disease prevalence, and lethality.

Main Results:

  • Host-pathogen co-evolution can induce infection cycling and diminish the disease-induced hydra effect.
  • Pathogen mono-evolution amplifies the hydra effect in both scope and intensity.
  • Increased recovery rates under co-evolution can paradoxically increase disease prevalence, shifting from high lethality to low lethality.

Conclusions:

  • The combined co-evolutionary and epidemiological framework offers insights into complex infection dynamics.
  • Host-pathogen co-evolution plays a critical role in shaping epidemic patterns.
  • Understanding these interactions is vital for predicting and managing infectious diseases.
Keywords:
Host–pathogen co-evolutionHydra effectInfection cyclingTransmission patterns

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