Critical mineral bottlenecks constrain sub-technology choices in low-carbon energy deployment

To meet global climate targets, countries aim to triple renewable energy capacity and rapidly deploy other low-carbon technologies by 2030. We assess the critical mineral demand required to meet these goals using a bottom-up, scenario-based approach and examine how mineral bottlenecks affect sub-technology choices. Our analysis yields three key findings. First, annual demand for critical minerals is projected to rise 6-fold, from 4.7 million tons in 2022 to 30 million tons by 2030. Second, minerals such as natural graphite, cobalt, lithium, tellurium, indium, silver, aluminum, copper, and rare earth elements may face supply constraints. Third, specific sub-technologies depend heavily on certain minerals: cadmium and tellurium shortages could limit thin-film photovoltaics; indium scarcity may hinder perovskite tandem cells; rare earths are vital for permanent-magnet wind turbines; and lithium is a key for all-solid-state batteries. Improving material efficiency and advancing mineral-efficient technologies will be essential for a resilient energy transition.