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Local homicides increase suicide in US counties.

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Higher homicide rates predict increased suicide rates, particularly firearm-related ones. This connection is stronger in rural areas and among White populations, highlighting the need for integrated violence reduction and suicide prevention strategies.

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Criminology
  • Sociology

Background:

  • Suicide is a leading cause of death in the U.S., with rising rates over two decades.
  • Existing research suggests a link between interpersonal violence exposure and suicide risk.
  • Few macro-level studies using longitudinal, quasi-experimental data exist on this relationship.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze the longitudinal relationship between U.S. county-level homicide and suicide rates.
  • To examine variations in this relationship by race, firearm involvement, and urbanicity.
  • To apply advanced econometric methods to address endogeneity and reverse causality.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a quasi-experimental System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach.
  • Analyzed 162,472 county-year observations from 1968 to 2019.
  • Data sourced from the CDC WONDER database and the National Historical Geographic Information System.

Main Results:

  • Increased homicide rates predict subsequent increases in suicide rates one year later.
  • A one-unit rise in total homicide rate correlated with a 0.493-unit increase in total suicide rates.
  • The homicide-suicide link was more pronounced for firearm-related fatalities, in rural areas, and among White populations.

Conclusions:

  • Interpersonal violence (homicide) and self-directed violence (suicide) are interconnected.
  • Suicide prevention efforts should integrate community-wide violence reduction strategies.
  • Findings highlight the need for targeted interventions considering demographic and geographic factors.