Analyzing burns incidence trends in BRICS from 1990 to 2021: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease

Burns constitute a significant global public health challenge. The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Ethiopia) represent emerging economies encompassing nearly half the global population. This study analyzes burns incidence trends across BRICS countries from 1990 to 2021, providing evidence to inform prevention and management strategies.

Analysis of burns incidence data through age-period-cohort modeling, decomposition analysis, health disparities analysis, frontier analysis, and Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling of future incidence rates.

In 2021, BRICS nations collectively reported 5.90 million burn cases, accounting for 2.40 % of all injuries, with a 21.30 % decrease in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) from 1990 to 2021. Iran experienced the most significant ASIR reduction (-67.10 %), while China had the smallest decrease (-14.40 %). Health disparities between high- and low-income countries widened over time. Despite high Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) rankings, Russia and Saudi Arabia exhibited elevated burn incidence rates. Linear Age Trends (LAT) for burn reduction varied among countries. In South Africa, burns were primarily caused by fire, heat, and hot substances (60.41 % of cases), while falls accounted for 37.44 % of burns in Saudi Arabia. Projections indicate declining ASIR from 2022 to 2035, with Russia projected to have the highest ASIR (336.76 per 100,000) and Iran the lowest (86.54 per 100,000).

Burns pose a major global public health challenge, necessitating action from national policymakers to address the increasing incidence of industrial accidents, household fires, natural disasters, and conflicts. The results of our analysis can help policymakers develop more effective burn prevention strategies.