Healthcare Service Gap Analysis: A Comparison of Trend Data from 2018 and 2022 Dubai Clinical Services Capacity...

Background: Dubai's healthcare system is designed to meet the growing needs of its population while maintaining high standards of accessibility, quality, equity, and responsiveness. The Dubai Health Authority (DHA) uses planning tools to assess residents' health requirements and implement effective regulatory strategies. This study compares trend data from the 2018 and 2022 Dubai Clinical Services Capacity Plan (DCSCP) reports to understand how population changes have impacted healthcare demand and to identify service gaps addressed over four years with particular focus on key medical specialties in high demand. Methodology: This study retained the methodologies used in the 2018 and 2022 Dubai Clinical Services Capacity Plan (DCSCP) reports, capturing healthcare supply through a census of licensed facilities in Dubai and estimating demand using a need-based approach aligned with diagnosis-related groups (IR-DGRs). The data is categorized into eight key health-planning units (KPUs) to highlight gaps across major service categories and assess whether these gaps have been resolved in a rapidly evolving healthcare system. Results: Between 2018 and 2022, there were clear improvements across several key planning units. The shortage of acute overnight beds was resolved, moving from a deficit of 239 beds to a surplus of 1728 beds, an overall gain of 1967 beds. Outpatient consultation rooms also saw major growth, shifting from a gap of 1769 rooms in 2018 to a surplus of 4707 rooms in 2022, a net increase to 6476 rooms. In addition, emergency department capacity increased, and the number of ICU beds also rose from 484 to 691, an overall growth of 43%. These changes represent measurable improvements in acute care and outpatient service capacity. However, despite the addition of 76 beds, long-term care continues to show a shortfall of 138 beds, indicating that this remains a significant gap in Dubai's healthcare system. Conclusions: Dubai has made significant progress in expanding its healthcare infrastructure between 2018 and 2022, addressing many capacity shortfalls, particularly in critical care and outpatient services. However, challenges in non-acute and long-term care remain, requiring ongoing strategic planning to meet future healthcare needs.