Unsupervised Machine Learning to Identify Patient Clusters and Tailor Perioperative Care in Colorectal Surgery

Background: The aim of the present study was to apply machine learning (ML) techniques to define clusters relating patient demographics, compliance, and outcome variables in colorectal enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) patients and improve data-driven, predictive decision-making. Methods: To uncover inherent patient subgroups from the data without pre-defined labels, the unsupervised K-means clustering algorithm was utilized. This technique was selected for its effectiveness in partitioning patients into distinct groups by iteratively assigning them to the nearest cluster mean, thereby minimizing within-cluster variance across key variables. The top five recovery goals and the top 10 clinical outcome variables were defined based on clinical considerations (incidence and importance). In a second step, the cluster transition was traced by monitoring the transitions between clusters from demographic through compliance to outcome variables. Results: A total of 1381 patients were available for final analysis, revealing three clusters (low risk, n = 490, 36%; intermediate risk, n = 157, 11%; and high risk, n = 734, 53%) for demographic, two clusters (high compliance, n = 1011, 73%, and low compliance n = 370, 27%) for perioperative, and two clusters (good and poor outcomes) for the top five recovery goals and the top 10 clinical outcomes, respectively. The cluster transition for the top five recovery goals and the top 10 clinical outcomes revealed that most patients (488/490, 99.6%) of the low-risk demographic cluster had high perioperative compliance, and over 90% of them had favorable functional and clinical outcomes. Of the 2/3 of intermediate risk patients who had poor perioperative compliance, over 40% had a poor functional recovery, whereas 83% had good clinical outcomes. Of the high-risk demographic group, 100% (734/734) had low perioperative compliance, and over 40% of them had poor functional recovery. Conclusions: This ML-based analysis of demographic, compliance, and recovery clusters and associated cluster transition allowed us to identify patient clusters as a first step to tailored ERAS protocols aiming to improve compliance and outcomes.