Can efficiency offset emissions stemming from urban growth? Prospects for Saudi buildings

This paper blends econometric analysis and Monte Carlo simulation to untangle the drivers and trends of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reductions in the Saudi Arabian building sector, placing focus on energy efficiency. To this end, historical data from 1990 to 2022 are used to estimate the influence of energy efficiency, electricity prices and urbanization on CO₂ emission reductions. Then, the analysis constructs scenarios of plausible emissions trajectories up to 2060, supplemented by a classification tree and a regression technique, to uncover the main factors conditioning these trajectories under low-, medium- and high-emissions settings. The findings suggest that a 1 % increase in electricity intensity corresponds to a 0.30 % rise in CO₂ emissions associated with buildings, whereas a 1 % increase in electricity prices is associated with a 0.31 % decrease. Additionally, a 1 % increase in urbanization correlates with a 6.16 % rise in emissions. Scenario discovery reveals that, by 2060, per capita CO₂ emissions could decrease to about 4.45 tons (24.6 % below the 2022 baseline of 5.9 tons) under proactive intervention or increase to 6.27 tons (6.4 % above the baseline) if current trends persist. These insights underline the need for a multifaceted approach to curbing emissions effectively. To sustain the decarbonization of buildings in Saudi Arabia, specifically on the demand side, the findings call for early, coordinated advancements in energy-efficient technologies, stricter building codes, cost-reflective pricing, thoughtful urban planning, and adaptive policy frameworks.