Risk factors and clinical prediction models for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery in patients with...

Colorectal polyps (CPs) are important precursor lesions of colorectal cancer, and endoscopic surgery remains the primary treatment option. However, the short-term recurrence rate post-surgery is high, and the risk factors for recurrence remain unknown.

To comprehensively explore risk factors for short-term recurrence of CPs after endoscopic surgery and develop a nomogram prediction model.

Overall, 362 patients who underwent endoscopic polypectomy between January 2022 and January 2024 at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital were included. We screened basic demographic data, clinical and polyp characteristics, surgery-related information, and independent risk factors for CPs recurrence using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. The multivariate analysis results were used to construct a nomogram prediction model, internally validated using Bootstrapping, with performance evaluated using area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis.

CP re-occurred in 166 (45.86%) of the 362 patients within 1 year post-surgery. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 1.04, P = 0.002), alcohol consumption (OR = 2.07, P = 0.012), Helicobacter pylori infection (OR = 2.34, P < 0.001), polyp number > 2 (OR = 1.98, P = 0.005), sessile polyps (OR = 2.10, P = 0.006), and adenomatous pathological type (OR = 3.02, P < 0.001) were independent risk factors for post-surgery recurrence. The nomogram prediction model showed good discriminatory (AUC = 0.73) and calibrating power, and decision curve analysis showed that the model had good clinical benefit at risk probabilities > 20%.

We identified multiple independent risk factors for short-term recurrence after endoscopic surgery. The nomogram prediction model showed a certain degree of differentiation, calibration, and potential clinical applicability.