Impact of Medicaid Expansion on Lung Cancer Survival Outcomes: A Difference-in-Differences Analysis

The Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion aimed to enhance healthcare access for low-income individuals and minority groups, promoting early screening and treatment to improve health equity.

This study examines the impact of Medicaid expansion on lung cancer-specific survival (CSM) and overall mortality (OS) by comparing outcomes in Texas (non-expansion of ACA) and California (expansion of ACA).

We conducted a retrospective study using data from SEER cancer registry (2007-2021) to evaluate the impact of Medicaid expansion on lung cancer survival in California (expansion) vs. Texas (non-expansion). The study included adults aged 18-64, with periods split into pre-ACA (2007-2013), one-year washout (2014), and post-ACA (2015-2021). We utilized a DID design and adjusted for important covariates.

Among 119,937 individuals with Lung cancer, 52.1% were in California (62,521), while 47.8% were in Texas (57,416). The pre-ACA period included 60,010 individuals (53.1% in California and 46.9% in Texas), and 59,927 patients were in the post-ACA period (51.2% in California and 48.8% in Texas). Overall, Medicaid expansion was associated with a 1.12-point (-1.12, 95% CI -1.46 to -0.77) reduction in the hazard of cancer-specific mortality. The policy was also associated with a 0.81point reduction in the hazard of overall mortality (-0.81, 95% CI -1.06 to -0.57).

Medicaid expansion was associated with a significant improvement in lung cancer outcomes among individuals with lung cancer in California, which implemented the policy in 2014, compared to Texas, which has not yet implemented the policy.