Improving epidemiological projections for infectious diseases in Ghana: addressing methodological challenges

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Public Health
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Global disease models often fail in lower-resource settings like Ghana.
• Ghana faces unique challenges including data fragmentation and socio-ecological factors.
• Recent outbreaks of Marburg virus and Mpox exacerbated these modeling limitations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine challenges in adapting global disease models to Ghana's context.
• To propose strategies for improving the accuracy and utility of disease models in Ghana.
• To advocate for context-specific modeling approaches for pandemic preparedness.

Main Methods:

• Commentary and analysis of existing modeling approaches.
• Focus on Ghana's specific socio-ecological and infrastructural context.
• Examination of data limitations and the impact of concurrent outbreaks.

Main Results:

• Global models struggle to capture Ghana's disease dynamics accurately.
• Difficulty in collecting disaggregated data and accounting for sociocultural determinants.
• Concurrent outbreaks highlighted the limitations of current modeling frameworks.

Conclusions:

• Rethinking disease modeling approaches for Ghana is imperative.
• Context-specific data, interdisciplinary input, and social/economic factors are crucial.
• Improved modeling frameworks are essential for pandemic preparedness in Ghana and similar regions.