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Machine Learning for Improved Dengue Diagnosis in Puerto Rico.

Zachary J Madewell1, Dania M Rodriguez1, Maile B Thayer1

  • 1Division of Vector-Borne Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Tropical Medicine & International Health : TM & IH
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Summary

Machine learning models, particularly XGBoost and LightGBM, significantly improve dengue diagnosis using common clinical data. These advanced models offer a promising, accessible tool for accurate dengue detection, especially in resource-limited areas.

Keywords:
Caribbeandenguediagnosisextreme gradient boostingmachine learning

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Area of Science:

  • Infectious Disease Epidemiology
  • Medical Informatics
  • Machine Learning in Healthcare

Background:

  • Accurate dengue diagnosis is challenging in resource-limited settings due to symptom overlap and diagnostic method limitations.
  • Existing diagnostic tools for dengue fever may not be readily accessible or rapid enough for widespread clinical use.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and evaluate machine learning models for improved dengue diagnosis using accessible clinical data.
  • To enhance diagnostic accuracy for dengue, providing a potential rapid and accessible tool for healthcare providers.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from the Sentinel Enhanced Dengue Surveillance System (SEDSS) in Puerto Rico (May 2012-June 2024).
  • Evaluated various machine learning models (XGBoost, LightGBM, logistic regression, random forest, SVM, ANN, adaptive boosting) using demographic, clinical, laboratory, and epidemiological variables.
  • Assessed model performance via the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Main Results:

  • XGBoost and LightGBM models achieved the highest diagnostic accuracy, with AUCs over 90%.
  • Key predictors for improved dengue diagnosis included monthly incidence, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, rash, age, and absence of nasal discharge.
  • Incorporating comprehensive clinical and epidemiological features consistently enhanced model sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusions:

  • Machine learning models, especially XGBoost and LightGBM, demonstrate significant potential for accurate dengue diagnosis using readily available clinical data.
  • These models can be particularly valuable in resource-limited settings for improving dengue detection.
  • Future work should focus on developing user-friendly tools (e.g., mobile apps, web platforms) for clinical implementation and exploring predictive applications.