Implications for environmental management: assessing urban ecological environment quality in Chengdu with a modified...

Rapid urbanization in recent decades has intensified ecological pressures, underscoring the need for precise methods to assess urban ecological environment quality (EEQ) in support of China's sustainable development. This study introduced a modified remote sensing ecological index (MRSEI), which integrates high-resolution aerosol optical depth (AOD) to enhance EEQ evaluation by incorporating AOD into a framework comprising the normalized difference vegetation index, wetness, normalized difference bare soil index, and land surface temperature. Using principal component analysis and Moran's I, the study Analyzed spatiotemporal patterns from 2001 to 2021, quantified driving mechanisms through redundancy analysis and random forest-structural equation modeling (RF-SEM), and projected future scenarios (conventional, environmental, and accelerated development models) using the cellular automata Markov model with 30-m resolution data for localized precision. Results showed MRSEI values ranged from 0.5028 to 0.5635, declining initially before fluctuating upward to reach the lowest point in 2011; moderate EEQ dominated, covering 68.62% of the land area. By 2021, poor EEQ areas increased by 163.70%, while "good" and "excellent" EEQ areas decreased by 1.15% And 73.27%, respectively, with western regions exhibiting higher EEQ than central and eastern areas. RF-SEM identified land use and land cover as the key driving factor in the western region, while urbanization promoted the influence of gross domestic product and population density on EEQ through direct and indirect mechanisms. The environmental development scenario is expected to further enhance urban EEQ in the future, providing a scientific basis for sustainable urban planning and ecological management.