Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jan 17, 2026
06:42
Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation of the Posterior Medial Frontal Cortex to Experimentally Reduce Ideological Threat Responses
Published on: September 28, 2018
12.1K
Exploring Meta-Reasoning Propositional Confidence in Conspiratorial Beliefs and Socio-Cognitive Polarization.
Carola Salvi1, Marta K Mielicki2, Alice Cancer3
1Department of Psychological and Social Sciences, John Cabot University, Rome, Italy.
Open Mind : Discoveries in Cognitive Science
|September 17, 2025
Summary
Conspiracy beliefs stem from flawed thinking, not just what people believe. Overconfidence in problem-solving and socio-cognitive polarization contribute to these unfounded worldviews.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Psychology
- Social Psychology
- Behavioral Science
Background:
- Conspiracy theories are prevalent across cultures and time, often amplified during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic.
- These theories can significantly influence public behavior and attitudes, contributing to issues such as vaccine hesitancy.
- The research focuses on the metacognitive underpinnings of conspiracy beliefs, specifically how individuals evaluate their own problem-solving processes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the link between meta-reasoning inaccuracies, such as overconfidence in problem-solving, and the propensity to believe in conspiracy theories.
- To examine how flawed confidence judgments and errors in problem-solving relate to conspiracy beliefs.
- To explore the role of Socio-Cognitive Polarization (SCP) in amplifying the relationship between cognitive patterns and conspiracy beliefs.
Main Methods:
- Study 1 analyzed archival data on COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs and judgments of solvability in Compound Remote Associate (CRA) tasks.
- Study 2 assessed the relationship between errors in Rebus puzzles and conspiracy beliefs, alongside measures of Socio-Cognitive Polarization (SCP).
- Both studies examined metacognitive markers of overconfidence during problem-solving tasks.
Main Results:
- Conspiracy beliefs were associated with high, often unwarranted, propositional confidence.
- In Study 1, COVID-19 conspiracy beliefs correlated with initial judgments of solvability in CRA tasks.
- In Study 2, commission errors on Rebus puzzles were linked to conspiracy beliefs, with SCP significantly amplifying this effect.
Conclusions:
- Conspiracy beliefs are significantly influenced by how individuals think, particularly their meta-reasoning processes and confidence in their judgments.
- Flawed meta-reasoning, characterized by overconfidence, is a key cognitive foundation for conspiracy beliefs.
- Socio-political attitudes, as measured by SCP, interact with cognitive patterns to sustain conspiratorial worldviews.
More Related Videos
Related Concept Videos
01:01Group Polarization
38.4K
Group polarization is the strengthening of an original group attitude following the discussion of views within a group (Teger & Pruitt, 1967). That is, if a group initially favors a viewpoint, after discussion the group consensus is likely a stronger endorsement of the viewpoint. Conversely, if the group was initially opposed to a viewpoint, group discussion would likely lead to stronger opposition.
38.4K
01:37Reason and Intuition
7.4K
The human brain processes information for decision-making using one of two routes: an intuitive system and a rational system (Epstein, 1994; popularized by Kahneman, 2011 as System 1 and System 2, respectively). The intuitive system is quick, impulsive, and operates with minimal effort, relying on emotions or habits to provide cues for what to do next, while the rational system is logical, analytical, deliberate, and methodical. Research in neuropsychology suggests that the...
7.4K
01:53Cause and Effect
12.1K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
12.1K
01:15Theory of Attribution I: Correspondent Inference Theory
454
Correspondent inference theory, proposed by Jones and Davis in 1965, seeks to explain how individuals infer stable personality traits from observed behaviors. It suggests that people attribute actions to underlying dispositions rather than external circumstances, particularly when the behavior appears intentional and socially significant.Voluntary Behavior and Dispositional AttributionAccording to this theory, individuals are more likely to attribute behavior to personal traits when it appears...
454
01:25Motivational Bias
313
Cognitive bias results from limitations in thinking and information processing, leading to systematic errors in judgment. Conversely, motivational bias stems from personal desires or emotions, causing distortions in perception to align with self-interest. Motivational bias influences how individuals perceive and attribute causes to events, often shaped by personal needs, goals, and self-esteem preservation. This bias can distort judgment, leading to inaccurate assessments of success, failure,...
313
00:52Social Proof
31.5K
Social proof is a form of persuasion based on comparison and conformity. People compare their behavior and actions to what others are doing and will change to conform to do what their peers do.
31.5K