Carcinogenic and Noncarcinogenic Risk Assessment due to Heavy Metals in Groundwater Using Probabilistic Approach

The contamination of groundwater by heavy metals has been increasing in recent times. The exposure of the human body to several hazardous and nontoxic heavy metals in groundwater is a major health issue, particularly in developing nations. The aim of this study is to assess the carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk for children and adults based on a deterministic as well as a probabilistic approach, along with the spatial distribution of toxic metals (Cd, Cr, Zn, and Fe) in the groundwater of Mansa district (Punjab). Monte Carlo simulations integrate stochastic variability, which enables them to model scenarios with greater accuracy. The sensitivity analysis was also performed to determine significant factors impacting environmental outcomes. The atomic absorption spectrophotometer, AAS-7000, was used to quantify the levels of heavy metals in groundwater samples. The heavy metal concentrations in the study region were found in the order of Cd > Cr > Zn > Fe. The concentration of heavy metals is the factor that highly influences the noncarcinogenic risk to the general population. The cancer risk among children and adults is about 2 and 1 per 1000, respectively, attributed to increased levels of chromium and cadmium found in groundwater. Therefore, it is crucial to examine the possible ramifications of excessive heavy metal contamination and develop a thorough strategy for long-term recovery.