[Evaluation of China's Agricultural Non-point Source Pollution Intensity： Spatial and Temporal Differentiation，...

Accurately assessing the intensity of agricultural non-point source pollution （ANPSP） is of great practical significance for promoting the sustainable development of agriculture and the modernization of agriculture and rural areas. This paper explores the spatial and temporal differentiation， dynamic evolution， and spatial agglomeration characteristics of China's ANPSP intensity from 2005 to 2022 based on a comprehensive evaluation of China's ANPSP intensity. The results of the study follow： ① At the national level， China's ANPSP intensity increased in some years， but on the whole showed a fluctuating downward trend， which can be categorized into three different stages， namely， rapid rise， fluctuating decline， and continuous rapid decline. At the regional level， the main grain-producing areas， main grain marketing areas， and production and marketing balance areas of ANPSP intensity all showed a fluctuating downward trend， although the differences between these areas were large. The main grain-producing areas showed the largest decline， and the main grain marketing areas showed the smallest decline. At the inter-provincial level， the intensity of ANPSP in 2022 was highest in Qinghai and lowest in Shanghai. ② China's ANPSP intensity showed a decreasing trend， and the gap between regions narrowed. Although the ANPSP intensity of the main grain producing areas， main grain marketing areas， and production and marketing balance areas also showed a decreasing trend， there was still a certain difference between each. ③ Although the global Moran's index of China's ANPSP intensity from 2005 to 2022 showed some fluctuation， the overall trend was downward. Overall， there was obvious spatial positive correlation， with most provinces showing the high-high concentration or low-low concentration type. During the period of investigation， the level of China's ANPSP intensity remained stable， and the type generally did not change. The probability of no transformation of type was at least 82.03%. With the introduction of spatial factors， the ANPSP intensity level in each province continued to be stable， but some fluctuation occurred.