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A New Residual Approach for Estimating Undocumented Populations.

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Estimating the undocumented population in the US is challenging due to outdated emigration data. This study introduces an improved method using the American Community Survey (ACS) for more current annual estimates.

Keywords:
legal noncitizenspopulation estimatesundocumented population

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Population Studies
  • Sociology

Background:

  • The undocumented population in the US grew significantly until 2008, then declined slightly by 2010.
  • Estimates diverge post-2010, with organizations reporting increases or declines.
  • Discrepancies stem from varied and outdated emigration data used by different organizations.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To present an improved residual method for updating annual estimates of the undocumented population.
  • To address the limitations of current estimation methods by incorporating time-varying emigration data.
  • To enable timely and reliable estimation of the undocumented population using the American Community Survey (ACS).

Main Methods:

  • Developed an improved residual method for estimating the undocumented population.
  • Incorporated a time-varying estimate of emigration into the calculation.
  • Utilized data from the American Community Survey (ACS) for annual updates.

Main Results:

  • The proposed method allows for updated estimates as soon as ACS data are released.
  • The methodology facilitates more accurate and current estimations of the undocumented population.
  • Provides a framework for consistent annual updates to demographic estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Reliable, up-to-date information on the undocumented population is crucial for policy development and evaluation.
  • The improved method offers a solution to the divergence in current estimates.
  • This approach ensures that data needed for estimation are available contemporaneously with data collection.