A New Residual Approach for Estimating Undocumented Populations

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Population Studies
• Sociology

Background:

• The undocumented population in the US grew significantly until 2008, then declined slightly by 2010.
• Estimates diverge post-2010, with organizations reporting increases or declines.
• Discrepancies stem from varied and outdated emigration data used by different organizations.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present an improved residual method for updating annual estimates of the undocumented population.
• To address the limitations of current estimation methods by incorporating time-varying emigration data.
• To enable timely and reliable estimation of the undocumented population using the American Community Survey (ACS).

Main Methods:

• Developed an improved residual method for estimating the undocumented population.
• Incorporated a time-varying estimate of emigration into the calculation.
• Utilized data from the American Community Survey (ACS) for annual updates.

Main Results:

• The proposed method allows for updated estimates as soon as ACS data are released.
• The methodology facilitates more accurate and current estimations of the undocumented population.
• Provides a framework for consistent annual updates to demographic estimates.

Conclusions:

• Reliable, up-to-date information on the undocumented population is crucial for policy development and evaluation.
• The improved method offers a solution to the divergence in current estimates.
• This approach ensures that data needed for estimation are available contemporaneously with data collection.