Mapping the Potential Risk of Coronavirus Spillovers in a Global Hotspot

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
• Epidemiology
• Conservation Biology

Background:

• Bats are reservoirs for numerous viruses, including coronaviruses like SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2.
• Increased habitat loss and fragmentation elevate the risk of zoonotic disease spillover events.
• Horseshoe bats (genus Rhinolophus) serve as key hosts for zoonotic pathogens.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify potential zoonotic spillover and pandemic risk hotspots in South and Southeast Asia.
• To assess the impact of landscape characteristics and host diversity on coronavirus emergence risk.
• To model pandemic spread from identified spillover risk areas.

Main Methods:

• Integrated Rhinolophid species distributions, forest fragmentation data, and human population density.
• Analyzed two scenarios: baseline forest cover and increased fragmentation due to infrastructure.
• Utilized network models to simulate pandemic spread from spillover hotspots.

Main Results:

• Spillover risk hotspots were concentrated in Indochina and southern China.
• High host species richness and forest fragmentation correlate with increased spillover risk.
• Pandemic spread simulations identified risk clusters in Bangladesh and northeast India.

Conclusions:

• Asia, particularly Indochina and South Asia, faces heightened risks of coronavirus emergence and spread.
• Habitat fragmentation and human population density are critical factors in zoonotic spillover.
• A multidisciplinary approach is crucial for ecosystem health, public health, and targeted disease surveillance.