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Global Mpox outbreaks: A comprehensive epidemiological assessment (2022-2024)
Shraddha Tiwari1, Thakur Dhakal1, Youhyun Son2
1Department of Life Sciences, Yeungnam University, 38541, Republic of Korea.
Journal of Infection and Public Health
|September 18, 2025
Summary
The monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak shows limited sustained transmission but a risk of exponential spread. Global connectivity analysis reveals rapid cross-border spread, highlighting the need for continued surveillance and international collaboration to control the disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Analysis
- Spatial Analysis
Background:
- The global monkeypox (Mpox) outbreak presents a significant public health challenge, with over 115,000 cases reported across 126 territories.
- Understanding the epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics is crucial for effective public health interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the basic reproduction number (R0), doubling time, case fatality rate, and inter-country connectivity of the ongoing Mpox outbreaks.
- To identify disease hubs and assess global spatial distribution patterns.
Main Methods:
- Calculated R0 and doubling time using a 9-day mean infectious period.
- Analyzed outbreak networks via correlation and co-occurrence.
- Assessed disease hubs using network centrality measures and spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I).
Main Results:
- Global mean R0 was 1.046, with a doubling time of 373.12 days, suggesting limited sustained transmission but potential for exponential spread.
- Moderate clustering of Mpox cases was observed globally (Moran's I = 0.067, p=0.075).
- Significant inter-country spread was detected, with countries like Germany, USA, and Australia identified as disease hubs, underscoring global interconnectedness.
Conclusions:
- Understanding Mpox outbreak dynamics, spatial distribution, and connectivity is vital for the One Health approach.
- Findings highlight the risk of global Mpox transmission, necessitating ongoing surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and international cooperation to control its spread.
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