[Methods and practical applications of clinical prediction model development]

Clinical prediction models are statistical tools that incorporate multiple variables to predict the likelihood of specific outcomes, by which the accuracy and efficiency of medical decision-making can be facilitated and patient health outcomes can be improved. However, many current studies face problems, such as model construction and reporting irregularities, as well as questionable reliability, which limit their clinical application of clinical prediction model. Therefore, this study systematically reviews relevant literatures, including publications from journals like BMJ, and outline the steps involved in constructing clinical prediction models based on practical research experience. It also provides an in-depth comparison of commonly used methods during the construction process and proposes a comprehensive guiding framework to help researchers in the field to better understand and master the core concepts and practical skills of clinical prediction models for the purpose of improving their professional capabilities in the development, validation, and application of clinical prediction models.