Climate-Driven Variability in Flowering Phenology Changes Across Subtropical Mountains: Traits, Elevation Shifts, and...

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Botany
• Climate Change Science

Background:

• Flowering phenology is vital for angiosperm success and a key climate change indicator.
• Subtropical montane ecosystems' phenological shifts and drivers are understudied at continental scales.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate flowering phenology shifts over the past century in 11 Chinese subtropical mountains.
• To identify the drivers of these phenological changes, including climate, species traits, and elevational range.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of century-long herbarium collections from 784 flowering plant species.
• Linear regression models to assess flowering time changes per species and mountain.
• Investigation of climate data, species traits, and elevational range size as potential drivers.

Main Results:

• An average advancement of 3.8 days per decade in flowering phenology was observed.
• Significant regional disparities: advancement in southeastern mountains, delay in southwestern mountains.
• Climate change, species traits, and mountain properties significantly influenced flowering time shifts; lowland and non-native plants showed greater advancement.

Conclusions:

• Flowering phenological responses are context-dependent, influenced by complex biotic-abiotic interactions.
• Phenological plasticity correlates negatively with elevational range expansion, suggesting adaptation.
• This study offers the first biogeographical assessment of flowering phenology shifts in subtropical Asian mountains, informing conservation strategies.