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Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Risk-based framework to determine climate-informed design storms for road drainage infrastructure.

Mohammad Fereshtehpour1, Rashid Bashir1, Neil F Tandon2

  • 1Department of Civil Engineering, Lassonde School of Engineering, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.

The Science of the Total Environment
|September 19, 2025
PubMed
Summary

Climate change increases extreme rainfall, challenging road drainage. This study presents a risk-based framework using climate models to create climate-informed design storms for resilient transportation infrastructure.

Keywords:
Climate changeDesign stormDrainage infrastructureFlood risk assessmentTransportation infrastructure

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental science
  • Civil engineering
  • Climate science

Background:

  • Climate change exacerbates extreme precipitation events globally.
  • Traditional road drainage design relies on historical data, failing to account for future climate variability.
  • Infrastructure resilience is threatened by the inadequacy of conventional design methods.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a risk-based framework for climate-informed design storms for road drainage systems.
  • To integrate climate model projections and risk assessment for future extreme rainfall impacts.
  • To enhance the long-term resilience of transportation networks against climate change.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized statistically downscaled CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for projected precipitation changes.
  • Defined risk as a function of hazard (physiographic, meteorological) and vulnerability (socioeconomic, transportation, environmental).
  • Developed a weighting scheme based on sensitivity analysis to integrate risk components and adjust design storms.

Main Results:

  • Quantified projected precipitation changes for mid- and late-century horizons.
  • Demonstrated a scalable and adaptable workflow through province-wide and site-specific applications in Ontario, Canada.
  • Showcased the adjustment of projected design storms based on estimated risk levels.

Conclusions:

  • Static, stationarity-based design methodologies are insufficient for future climate conditions.
  • A shift towards dynamic, risk-informed approaches is crucial for enhancing road drainage resilience.
  • The proposed framework offers a robust method for climate-adaptive infrastructure design.