Do organic farming policies need to be more target-oriented to achieve sustainability?

Organic farming is a key element of the EU Green Deal's Farm-to-Fork strategy, which aims to achieve 25 % of agricultural land being organic by 2030. Within the context of the current organic conversion policy (CAP Strategic Plans for 2023-2027), the aim of this paper is to assess whether a more complex and targeted organic support mechanism delivers greater GHG emissions reduction compared to a simpler but less targeted option. Using the IFM-CAP model, three contrasting organic conversion policy strategies for the EU are assessed: an action-oriented approach, a result-oriented approach focused on the GHG abatement potential, and a combined approach emphasizing cost-effectiveness. The findings reveal significant trade-offs: while the result-oriented strategy is more costly and complex due to higher monitoring requirements, it achieves greater emission reductions per euro spent, mainly by converting high-emitting livestock farms. However, it results in a larger gap to the 25 % organic area target. Conversely, the action-oriented strategy is less costly, focuses on arable farm conversion, comes closer to the 25 % organic area target, but achieves lower emission reductions. Therefore, to achieve environmental benefits from organic farming, it is necessary to focus on farms with higher environmental improvement potential rather than just on the amount of land converted.