Moving towards a net-zero emissions economy in Indonesia

Indonesia is the largest emitter in Southeast Asia and among the top seven CO2-emitting countries globally. Given the country's prospects for socio-economic development, a continued reliance on a fossil fuel-dominated energy mix would lead to an unsustainable future. Indonesia has set various energy targets and aims to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060. In this paper, we present a LEAP model of Indonesia's energy system, to investigate possible energy profiles and trajectories of emissions that meet the country's climate ambition. To do so, we develop four scenarios, i.e. Business-as-Usual (BAU), Current Policies Scenario (CPS), Renewable Energy Enhancement (REE) and Net-Zero Emissions (NZE). Results indicate that Indonesia's final energy consumption could rise by up to 375 % by 2060 from the 2018 level, while its economy-wide target of net-zero emissions remains achievable. The analysis also quantifies the mitigation contributions of key strategies, including energy transition towards renewables, electrification, energy efficiency improvement and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The policy implications of Indonesia's decarbonization pathways are discussed.