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Predicting Running-Related Injuries from Functional, Kinetic and Kinematic Data
Ray Ban Chuan Loh1,2, Jing Wen Pan1, Muhammad Nur Shahril Iskandar1
1Physical Education and Sports Science Department, National Institute of Education, Nanyang Technological Univerrsity, Singapore.
International Journal of Sports Medicine
|September 20, 2025
Summary
Current prediction models struggle to forecast running injuries, even with complex biomechanical data. Accessible screening tools are insufficient for accurately predicting future running-related injuries in recreational runners.
Area of Science:
- Sports Medicine
- Biomechanics
- Injury Prevention
Background:
- Inconsistent biomechanical risk factors for running-related injuries are documented.
- Limited research exists on the interaction between biomechanics and other injury risk factors.
- Predicting running injuries remains a challenge for recreational runners.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and compare prediction models for running-related injuries over 12 months.
- To assess the predictive capability of various model complexities using accessible tools.
- To investigate interactions between biomechanical and other risk factors for running injuries.
Main Methods:
- Prospective cohort study with 83 recreational runners.
- Baseline assessments included the Functional Movement Screen and biomechanical analysis (in-shoe force sensors, 2D kinematic analysis).
- 12-month follow-up to record running-related injuries; statistical analysis using Mann-Whitney U-test and binary logistic regression.
Main Results:
- No statistically significant prediction models were identified, regardless of complexity (p-values 0.106–0.972).
- Neither simple (single variable) nor complex (multiple variables) models accurately predicted running injuries.
- Accessible biomechanical and functional screening tools did not yield significant predictive power.
Conclusions:
- Prediction models using accessible tools cannot accurately forecast future running-related injuries.
- Researchers and practitioners should exercise caution regarding the over-reliance on simple screening measures for injury risk.
- Further research is needed to identify reliable predictors for running-related injuries.
