Association Between Climatic Variables and Dengue Incidence in a Mekong Delta Province

Dengue is a significant public health concern in tropical countries. This study explored the short-term associations between monthly climatic variables and dengue incidence. Dengue cases and weather parameters from 2001 to 2023 were collected in Can Tho City, a central province of the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. A quasi-Poisson regression with a distributed lag linear model was employed to determine the associations. A total of 32 265 dengue cases were collected. Of these cases, 53.7% were male, and 64.1% were under 15. Each 5% increase in relative humidity was associated with a 19.3% increase in dengue cases. Each 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with a 13.8% increase in dengue cases. Rainfall showed a negative effect, with each 5 mm increase in rainfall decreasing cases by 1.3%. Wind velocity showed no significant impact. The study demonstrated that relative humidity and temperature are key predictors for dengue forecasting and prevention.