Progesterone decline threshold in predicting early pregnancy loss: a retrospective study

Area of Science:

• Reproductive Endocrinology
• Clinical Biochemistry

Background:

• Single serum progesterone measurements predict non-viable pregnancies.
• Dynamic changes in progesterone during early pregnancy loss (EPL) are not well-understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the association between serum progesterone decline thresholds (PDT) and EPL.
• To evaluate the predictive value of progesterone level dynamics in early pregnancy.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective study of 664 pregnant women.
• Defined PDT based on standard deviation (SD) declines from baseline progesterone.
• Utilized multivariate logistic regression and ROC curve analysis.

Main Results:

• Lower baseline progesterone levels in the EPL group.
• PDT thresholds (≥ 1/5 SD, 1/3 SD, 1/2 SD) significantly associated with EPL risk.
• Each additional occurrence of PDT ≥ 1/3 SD increased EPL risk by 36%.

Conclusions:

• Specific PDTs (≥ 1/5 SD, 1/3 SD, 1/2 SD) are linked to increased EPL risk.
• These thresholds show potential predictive value for EPL diagnosis.
• PDT may help identify pregnancies requiring early intervention.